Threat of recounts looms over Midlands-North-West

The possibility of potential recounts in Midlands-North-West has already been raised by a leading candidate in the constituency.

Counting of ballots in Ireland’s European Parliament elections got under way on Sunday after votes were cast on Friday.

The first results cannot be announced until after polling closes in each EU member state late on Sunday, but unofficial and incomplete tallies carried out by volunteers observing ballot boxes being opened provide some insight into the likely outcome.

In Midlands-North-West, there are 27 candidates fighting for five seats in the massive electoral region which spans 15 counties.

The 73cm-long ballot paper was described as “like a toilet roll” by a local politician on Sunday.

Because of a rising population in Ireland, the constituency’s boundaries have been expanded and its voters will elect one more MEP compared with 2019.

The current four MEPs are independent Luke “Ming” Flanagan, Fine Gael’s Colm Markey and Maria Walsh, and Sinn Fein’s Chris MacManus.

Mr McManus and Mr Markey were co-opted to their seats when Matt Carthy became a TD and when Mairead McGuinness became a European commissioner.

Last time round, Fine Gael was the big winner, largely driven by a massive result for Ms McGuinness.

However, Mr Markey was withdrawn and Fine Gael has selected Irish Grand National-winning jockey Nina Carberry in his stead – a move seen as a celebrity candidature.

She will compete among the 27 total runners and riders in the contest, including unsuccessful presidential election candidate and entrepreneur Peter Casey and former RTE correspondent Ciaran Mullooly.

Sinn Fein is also fielding its former MP Michelle Gildernew, who is among the candidates saying they will be a voice for Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit European Parliament.

Elsewhere, the Fianna Fail campaign has been marred by infighting, as border region hopeful Niall Blaney accused the party leadership of throwing him and Mayo representative Lisa Chambers “overboard” in favour of Barry Cowen, who brings strong name recognition to the table.

By midday on Sunday, the main contenders appeared to be Mr Flanagan, Ms Walsh, and Mr Cowen, with Ms Carberry, Ms Chambers, Mr MacManus, Mr Toibin and Mr Mullooly also in the running.

While initial projections suggest Mr Flanagan will retake his seat, the independent candidate said he was still “in the dark” about the whole race because of significant gaps in the unofficial tallies for large parts of the constituency.

Asked if he was confident at this stage, he said: “I wouldn’t want to say that – I’ll be confident if I take the seat.”

Speaking to reporters at the count centre in Castlebar on Sunday, Mr Flanagan also said he expects the count to last a number of days.

He said: “There’s quite a lot of candidates here who are going to get a significant amount of votes and I think it’s nearly odds on that we’re going to have some sort of a recount – and potentially a recount at the end because I think it’s going to be close.

“So I predict – all I know is we booked a place to stay for the next week in Castlebar.”

Mr Flanagan predicted that Mr McManus may be in difficulty to regain his seat with Sinn Fein.

Mr Flanagan said: “They’re going to struggle to take a seat in this constituency, which is extraordinary when you look at some of the opinion polls from just over a year ago.

“They were up in this area around 40% and now we’re looking at tallies from Galway – and if the tallies are correct in Galway – I’m getting two and a half times the vote up or to their candidates put together.

“So that would have to be a significant worry for them.”

Elsewhere, Mr Flanagan also said he would “not rule out” Fine Gael securing two seats in the constituency.

Asked if this was evidence that picking celebrities as candidates is a successful strategy, Mr Flanagan said: “Apparently it does.

“And not only that, hiding a candidate during a campaign works if Nina Carberry gets elected – because I have never ever in my life met Nina Carberry.”

However, it was observed during that count that Ms Carberry’s transfers were regularly going to Fianna Fail candidates rather than Ms Walsh.

Mayo TD for Fine Gael Michael Ring said he was “very hopeful” the party could secure two seats.

Asked about anecdotal evidence that transfers were not always staying within Fine Gael, Mr Ring said there was no question that some voters were “thinking local”.

Mr Ring also criticised the length of the ballot paper.

“It was like a toilet roll, so it was. It was a disgrace.

“Democracy is democracy, but by God – one man said to me he’d need help to lift if. It was crazy.”

Local Fianna Fail junior minister Dara Calleary said the tallies were inconsistent but added that it is “crucial” for the party to have an MEP for the region.

“The issues of Midlands-North-West are very different from Munster and Dublin.

“Now we’d have somebody, hopefully, in our own party, that would be able to work with on issues that are directly relevant to us.”

Asked about the public arguments between the party’s three candidates, Mr Calleary added: “That’s the kind of thing that happens during elections.

“Elections were competitive. And, you know, there were nothing compared to the rows of council candidates – it was like afternoon tea compared to that!”