Where are all the County Limerick seats going to go?

THE REMAINING seats in Cappamore-Kilmallock, Adare-Rathkeale and Newcastle West are all set to be decided this Sunday.

And hopefully there is a bit of a lull between 4pm and 6pm due to the small matter of a Munster final. Apparently, counting in Clare will be paused for the match but no such luck in Limerick.

Let’s start with Cappamore-Kilmallock. Cllr Brigid Teefy and Cllr Martin Ryan were elected around midnight last night. Cllr Eddie Ryan had to come back this morning as he was 42 votes short of the quota. So that’s three of the seven seats filled.

Fine Gael’s Noreen Stokes and Greg Conway are next in line to get seats. That leaves two seats remaining and this is where it gets interesting. The three in the running for the final two seats are sitting councillors PJ Carey, Sinn Fein, Mike Donegan, Fianna Fail and newcomer Tommie O’Sullivan, Kilfinane. 

Cllr Donegan is trailing the other two candidates by around 300 votes but he will have transfers coming from party colleagues Denny Hourigan, Al Fitzgerald and Independent Ireland’s Grainne Hanley. Locally and nationally the consensus is that Sinn Fein isn’t transfer friendly which may affect Cllr Carey, although he is a former Independent. 

As TJ Ryan famously said about a deaf dog, it’s hard to call.

Two seats have been filled in the Adare-Rathkeale area in the first count by Fine Gael councillors Stephen Keary and Adam Teskey. Observers on the ground are predicting that the remaining four seats may be filled by lunchtime. 

Based on what we now know, the four seats could be filled by one Fianna Fáil and the remaining being independent or non-party. 

Current sitting councillor’s seat, Bridie Collins could be safe, as she looks set to be next in line. 

The Adare councillor was on edge yesterday and like many others in her position, she wasn’t sure of how the state of play would go today, but things are looking like they will be in her favour. 

Cllr John O’Donoghue also looks relatively safe - if such a statement can be uttered at this stage, but things can change very quickly. 

Nationally, Sinn Féin are performing poorer than what was predicted in the opinion polls and Independents seem to be taking some of those votes. 

There is room for new faces in Adare-Rathkeale area, which makes it quite hotly contested, with so many new names in the hat, it is hard to predict what way the public vote will go and how it will look for the overall feel of the Adare-Rathkeale Municipal District. 

Looking to Newcastle West, there was a lot of action in this district yesterday, with Cllr Jerome Scanlan, Cllr Liam Galvin and Cllr Michael Collins all getting through on the first count. 

With a quota set at 1,925, Cllr Jerome Scanlan performed really well, although he wasn’t here to be hoisted in the air for his moment of victory, although his win was certainly widely celebrated. 

The Feohanagh councillor came out with 2,301 votes, giving him a generous surplus of 376 votes. 

Fine Gael’s Cllr Liam Galvin was just marginally behind Cllr Scanlan at 2,257, and Fianna Fáil’s Michael Collins came in just behind that at 2,012 votes. 

Where it will go from here looks like a pretty traditional line out in terms of party layout. 

If Cllr Tom Ruddle and Cllr John Sheahan are successful in nabbing the next two seats - this would give Fine Gael three out of the six seats - half of the district’s contingent. 

The last seat then is a bit of a toss up between sitting Abbeyfeale councillor for Fianna Fáil, Cllr Francis Foley and newcomer for Sinn Féin, Padraig Collins. 

If things play out in Cllr Foley’s favour, the council would remain completely unchanged - likely the only district that would not be seeing any changes across the county.