OPINION: Met Éireann made a bags of snow warnings but will never admit it

Like many others, I awoke to a light covering of snow outside my window on Friday morning. "Was that forecast?" my wife asked as we gazed out the bedroom window and started receiving snow day Whatsapp pictures from friends and family.

To answer her question, and I work in news, I said "not really, there were no warnings." I said it confidently and then I checked my phone. There they were; fresh weather warnings for snow, ice, and the whole lot from Met Éireann. The only problem was they were issued far too late. It appeared the first warnings were issued at around 1am when most people were tucked up in bed. Another was issued or updated at 7.08am. 

This was the very time I was looking out the window, and I'm no meteorologist, but I was fairly sure the white stuff on the grass and falling from the sky was snow. My point being; what good is a warning if it's issued during the event you're warning people about? It was pelting snow at 7.08am.

We write weather stories all the time and Met Éireann's forecast on Thursday read: "Cold with a mix of clear spells and wintry rain showers, hail and sleet with some snow on hills and mountains. Some frost and icy patches are possible. Lowest temperatures are between -1 and +3 degrees, with mostly moderate north to northwest winds."

I don't live in the mountains and my family in Kildare, possibly the flattest county in Ireland, certainly don't, and yet there we had a spattering of fairly disruptive snow this morning. We saw videos from Dundrum of cars unable to accelerate up a hill on the Junction 13 ramp of the M50 due to snow and slush. Trains have been delayed or cancelled all over the country because of weather today and yet we went to bed last night comfortable in the knowledge any snow would be confined to hills or mountains thanks to our national forecaster.

Met Éireann defended itself this morning on radio and said if they had a crystal ball, there may have been Status Orange warnings issued.

Met Éireann meteorologist Brandon Creagh told RTÉ Radio One’s Today with Claire Byrne if “we knew exactly what was going to happen maybe that would have been an orange warning."

He said snow was "notoriously" difficult to forecast and that the last minute warnings were issued based on the most solid evidence "at the time."

"Given the risk at the time we do not take our warnings lightly at all and we cannot over warn otherwise people will not believe the orange warning when they come," he added.

I listened to the defence and I repeated the same thing in my head: 'they made a bags of it.' I may not have used 'bags' every time. They won't admit it and maybe the snow crept up on them on weather models but predicting the weather based on the science available to them is their job. I feel a Roy Keane impression coming on: 'Do your job.'

Met Éireann is often critical of weather forecasters outside of Met Éireann but they very often get their predictions spot on. One forecaster, Cathal Nolan from Ireland's Weather Channel, predicted snow widely on Thursday afternoon. At 7.15pm, he hosted a live video on socials where he openly criticised Met Éireann's forecast for Friday which briefly mentioned the chance or sleet and snow on high ground. No warnings were issued early on Thursday evening.

Cathal proceeded to reference a dozen weather models all suggesting snow on Friday that would be more widespread and potentially disruptive across parts of the country. He was making these comments six hours before Met Éireann acted to issue any warning for snow on Friday. At 5.08am, Cathal shared a screenshot of the Met Éireann website which still had no active warning for Longford, Westmeath, Sligo, Roscommon, Offaly or Meath despite social media users posting videos and pictures of heavy snowfall in those counties.

Met Éireann is quick to criticise other forecasters but when they so often get things wrong or are slow to issue warnings for severe weather, it's easy to see why other services are so popular. As someone working in a 24/7 news cycle, I see too how Met Éireann varies its warnings widely whereby a warning issued at 8am and reported on at 8.30am could be changed three or four times by 12 noon the same day. People get very sick of the inconsistent messaging and that very often falls at Met Éireann's door. 

It's a bad sign when your national weather forecaster is the butt of a long-running joke about being unable to predict the weather but they let themselves down on days like this. They've now issued more warnings for Friday afternoon but I won't tell you what they are because by the time you read this and go check the Met Éireann website, they'll have changed again!

Met Éireann replied to the criticism on Friday. You can read their full statement below:

"Met Éireann issued a rainfall warning on Thursday afternoon, 29th February 2024, warning of persistent rain, with a mix of sleet and snow at times. This was forecast to affect Dublin, Louth, Meath, and Wicklow.

"The reason for this warning was due to the borderline situation, where rain, sleet and snow were expected to fall.

"The transition from rain to sleet or snow was borderline, hence all these details were mentioned in the warning.

"All Met Éireann's forecasts mentioned the chance of sleet and snow as well as rain on Friday.

"Initially heavy rain developed overnight on Thursday, but in some parts of the country it turned to sleet and snow. This first happened in parts of Donegal and north Leinster and a snow/ice warning was issued. As the rain turned to snow in the midlands more counties came under the snow/ice warnings.

"Currently the snow-ice warnings for Leinster and Munster are due to expire at 6pm.

"This was a very complex and marginal situation. Snowfall is often very difficult to predict in Ireland as temperatures are usually marginal for snowfall. 1 degree can make all the difference. It is also dependent on the intensity of the precipitation that’s falling, wind speed and direction amongst other parameters.

"Our forecast model data in the days leading up to the snowfall on Friday morning indicated there would be a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow with the majority of snow over higher ground. There was a small chance of snow coming to low levels, but this chance was deemed too low to issue an advance warning.

"In the end, the intensity of the precipitation dragged down colder air from higher up in the atmosphere allowing the temperature to drop sufficiently to enable the sleet to transition to snow and accumulate readily. Our warnings were then updated to reflect this rapidly changing and dynamic situation."