Stats Perform event in Limerick examines data innovation in rugby

AT six points each in the recent ferociously-contested Autumn Nations Series fixture against World champions South Africa, Ireland out-half Johnny Sexton could have been forgiven for kicking the three points on offer from a penalty award in the 45th minute.

Instead - and much to the delight of the crowd - Sexton kicked for the corner. Brave call? Not if you were using Stats Perform’s Opta Data powered live expected points models.

Will Kane, product owner with Stats Perform, presented a data model of expected points to a fascinated audience on Friday last in the impressive International Rugby Experience, Limerick.

The data model backed Sexton’s decision and here’s how.

The data showed that the likelihood of Sexton converting the penalty, using data points such as location, match clock, current score and Sexton’s kick history outputted an expected point total of 2.54 (84.77% chance of a 3pt event).

On the other side of the decision was the potential points haul from a lineout set piece try and conversion. Based on the location, game environment, match clock and more, the Stats Perform Model outputted an expected point total of 3.09.

Albeit a lower chance of a score but of a higher scoring event. (For the try, 1.89 xT +for the conversion 1.20 xC). Expected points of 3.09 for the corner, versus 2.54 for the penalty.

Choosing the percentage play is nothing new, having that decision backed up by the deepest sports data, live, certainly is.

From Teletext to AI Data Modelling:

THE event, hosted by Stats Perform in the International Rugby Experience Limerick, was aimed at highlighting Data Innovation in Rugby. Steve Cliffe, SVP of Sales for APAC with Stats Perform, detailed the journey of data from the days of Teletext right through to modern AI and data that aids player welfare.

What the event also showcased was two sporting beacons within a box kick’s distance from each other in the heart of Limerick city.

Stats Perform has operated in the city since 2018. They currently employ close to 300 full and part-time staff, covering live, and post live, rugby and soccer from their Henry St offices. Spend any time watching sport over a weekend and you’ll come across their output.

From Jeff Stelling’s Vidi-printer on Sky Sports to a Johnny Sexton on screen kick prediction graphic. Their data is used everywhere. Just ask Siri or Alexa – that’s them too. The data is collected by a local, mostly student, team of analysts. Not bad for a part-time job.

The International Rugby Experience has slowly unveiled its magnificence to an expectant Limerick public over the last year. Towering over O’Connell St, the cathedral like structure is a real source of pride for the city.

Former Munster centre Barry Murphy, who MC’d the event said: “I honestly think this is the most exciting thing that’s happened in the city for a long time”.

With doors expected to open in early 2023, the immersive experience, which uses Stats Performs data, is sure to bring incredible numbers through its doors.