Veteran campaigner Joe Kemmy shares his thoughts ahead of election 2024

LARGER parties will see their vote share fall in these local elections as tribal loyalties continue to erode.

That’s the verdict of Joe Kemmy, who has watched counts in Limerick for the last 65 years and has gained a reputation as a respected local psephologist.

Council elections often test the pulse of the nation.

In 2009, the electorate punished Fianna Fail and the Green Party for the economic meltdown. Five years later, it was the turn of Fine Gael and Labour to feel voters’ wrath over water charges.

At the last local election in 2019, with environmental awareness very much on the rise, the Green Party returned its first two councillors in Limerick - and came mighty close to electing a third.

In 2024, national issues are, once again, influencing the way people vote, said Mr Kemmy, who has canvassed since the 1960s, initially alongside his brother, the former Labour TD Jim Kemmy, who died in 1997.

“We have a thriving city in many ways, but yet some people who ordinarily would not be in this position have a sense of hopelessness as they are paying big chunks of their salary every month on rent. These people are normally buyers of houses,” he said.

This, Mr Kemmy says, has “sharpened” the minds of some voters.

Now, he says the vote is more splintered than ever, as people seek alternatives to the Civil War parties.

“What I think will happen after talking to people on the doorsteps is that the main political parties’ power base will have been eroded. I’ve met many voters whose fathers and mothers I'd have known. And the children would not have known how they would have voted. And they are not concerned at this,” said Mr Kemmy.

This is a new, and positive phenomenon, the veteran campaigner believes.

“We used to go places canvassing with Jim and Jan O’Sullivan and we knew the Fianna Fail houses and Fine Gael houses. But there are a young breed of people out there raising young families who tend to make their minds up themselves on the type of candidate and how candidates and parties view their predicaments,” explained Mr Kemmy.

Despite all this, he does not think there will be huge change in the make-up of the 40-member council.

In the three metropolitan city districts, he believes it's only the final one or two seats up for grabs.

He explained: “With the large-sized electoral areas, the incumbents have a decided advantage, the fact they are household names, many of them. It’s very difficult for people to win first time out.”

Where we might see a rise in the Independent vote will be in the contest for Limerick’s first directly elected mayor.

Indeed, Mr Kemmy has made the bold prediction that Limerick’s new first citizen will not be associated with a party on the ballot.

Even for those who miss out on the job among the parties, a close eye will be kept on how well they do in the vote, with assessments no doubt being made as to whether they could break through in a general election which is due to be held in the next 12 months.

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“It will be crucial,” Mr Kemmy said. “I would equate the mayoral election to some extent with a by-election. Our experience of by-elections are, as we come closer, the electorate seem to back somebody and that somebody gets an unusually high share of the vote - even more than they would normally be entitled to.”

Something else that will be different about this set of council elections is that a candidate will struggle to be elected on the basis of their party alone.

An opinion poll at the weekend placed Sinn Fein on 23%, Fine Gael on 22% and Fianna Fail on 15%.

Mr Kemmy believes this will favour individual councillors - and their records - over their party.

“No party can say confidently any more that they have 24%, that will give us two seats. It’ll be more about the quality of the candidate. It will separate good, active councillors who keep people informed, tell people about planning permissions and road changes, and involve them,” he predicted.

The big story in 2019 was the collapse of the Sinn Fein vote - going from six councillors in 2014 to just two five years on.

Local party representatives are confident of reversing that, especially given Sinn Fein's performance at the 2020 general election.

But Mr Kemmy is not so sure, saying the party has traditionally not performed as well in local counts.

One thing looks likely, he concluded: when the dust settles on Election 2024, expect council to remain under no overall control.