Mayo’s season starts now

WE struggle with change in Ireland. Our initial instinct is often to bemoan it rather than embrace it. So it has been with this very different All-Ireland Football Championship.
We’ve lamented the lack of thrust in the provincials, especially for teams already assured of their place in the All-Ireland series. Never has it been of less consequence to win a provincial title. Indeed, Mayo have been rewarded with a less difficult group than Connacht champions Galway.
Of the four provincial deciders, only Sunday’s Ulster final gave us a spectacle worthy of the stage.
We’ve wondered about the fact that the four Sam Maguire groups will only eliminate the bottom team – a fair point.
We wonder is this the thin end of the wedge for the provincial championships?
They are certainly under existential threat.
But the reality is that we are now heading into an All-Ireland series with, by and large, the best 16 teams in the mix.
There’s some brilliant games to look forward to – Saturday next alone has two crackers.
The preliminary quarter finals will produce some gripping ties. And the best teams should emerge for the quarter-finals.
A handy Qualifier draw or the luck of the province you are in won’t be factors anymore.
How easy have Dublin and Kerry had it in their own provinces across the last decade or so?
They could plot and plan for quarter-finals a long way out. Semi-finals in 2020 and 2021.
Mayo dodged plenty of bullets in Qualifier draws down the years too.
That won’t happen this year.
The new structure has the potential to light up the football season. And it starts now.
For Mayo it means a trip to Killarney, for a reprisal of their only other year in an All-Ireland series group stage – when they made their only appearance in the ill-fated Super 8s in 2019.
It was an ill-fated trip to Killarney too that year. Cillian O’Connor broke the all-time championship scoring record but it was bittersweet as Kerry romped to a ten point victory.
A few things are worth noting from that result as we head into another group stage.
1, without their backs to the wall, Mayo struggled to be at their competitive best, a recurring theme. It’s 2015 since Mayo won a Connacht championship when there was a safety net.
2, a chastening defeat was not fatal. Mayo recovered to beat Meath in an uninspiring game but then joined Kerry in coming out of the group by beating Donegal in a grandstand decider in Castlebar.
3, however, the need to win such a high-octane game came back to bite them one week later when they hit the wall against a Dublin team who were much fresher after a dead rubber last group game against Tyrone. That freshness is something that should incentivise teams to top their groups this time around.
Winning in Killarney is not essential, but it would do three things – it would be a statement of intent for Mayo’s title credentials; it would imbue huge confidence after the Roscommon setback; and, most practically, it would set Mayo up to top the group and avoid the preliminary quarter-finals.
It was interesting to hear Padraig O’Hora say recently that Mayo were targeting this first game. With six weeks to kick their heels, the prospect of traveling to play one of Dublin, Kerry, Derry and Galway in the first game would have helped focus the minds.
Can they bring the required level of intensity and form to put themselves in the mix?
And who is better primed from recent weeks? Mayo with a block of training or Kerry with a lacklustre Munster championship?
The reality is that Kerry always knew they could use the Munster championship as a heavy training load if required, so it’s hard to argue for an advantage to Mayo.
The key factor for Mayo will be their ability to break down defences. We saw in the league their willingness to kick the ball early when it was on and the rewards it reaped.
When slower, more patient build-up play was required, they looked better than in previous years but still a bit behind some of the other top teams.
Against Roscommon, they struggled hugely. Derry, Galway, Kerry and Dublin, to name just the provincial winners, will make it harder still for Mayo in this regard.
Were Mayo tired? Flat? Mentally drained? Off form?
We will have a much better idea on Saturday.
The news on Cillian O’Connor’s wellbeing is a big blow. Not perhaps as fatal as it was in 2021. Now Mayo have more options inside, but O’Connor’s ability to influence games either from the start or from the bench remains a huge asset.
However, it is good to note that players like David McBrien, Enda Hession and Eoghan McLaughlin were absent from the list of names. Hopefully, O’Connor, Rory Brickenden and Brendan Harrison will be able to feature before the end of the group stages.
Most of the pressure is on Kerry on Saturday. That hasn’t always been to Mayo’s advantage. If they see this game as a chance to really go for this group, anything could happen.
The league can flatter to deceive.
We will have a much better idea of where Mayo are at in 2023 by 5pm on Saturday.