‘Rocketing’ costs and potential shortage of fertiliser due to Middle East crisis

IRISH farmers are facing rising fertiliser costs and potential supply side shortages following the conflict in the Middle East, according to grass and forage expert, Dr Patrick Cashman.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global shipping route — continues to impact on fertiliser shipments from major producers including Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, countries that together account for an estimated 20% of traded global nitrogen fertiliser plus additional LNG exports that can be used for Nitrogen production.

Nitrogen fertiliser is a cornerstone of Irish agriculture, widely used to drive high-yield grass growth for grazing livestock and to support tillage crops. Each spring, Irish dairy farmers apply significant amounts of nitrogen to stimulate grass growth as herds return to pasture following winter housing.

READ NEXT: ‘Field of Dreams’ put up for sale in Limerick, guided at €750,000

However, Mr Cashman says the situation highlights the vulnerability of Ireland’s heavy reliance on imported fertilisers such as nitrogen.

“The war in Iran is a clear supply-side risk for Irish agriculture. Any disruption to global fertiliser flows will quickly feed through to higher costs for farmers, putting additional pressure on already tight margins,” said Mr Cashman, of Cork based Agri-company Goldcrop.

Recognising the work already underway, Mr Cashman is encouraging the Department of Agriculture to reinforce its messaging through a national campaign that highlights how clover-rich grass swards can help farmers ease their reliance on nitrogen fertilisers.

“Clover is one of the most practical and environmentally sustainable tools Irish farmers have available.

“When integrated into perennial ryegrass swards, it naturally fixes nitrogen in the soil, improves grass growth and can increase animal production — all while reducing the need for expensive synthetic fertiliser.”

Beyond the Middle East, Mr Cashman noted that Russia accounts for roughly 20% of the global fertiliser trade, highlighting the growing geopolitical risks facing Irish agriculture.

“We cannot have a farming system that is dependent on inputs coming from volatile regions of the world. When supply chains are disrupted, the cost ultimately works its way through the food chain, increasing farmers’ cost base and onto supermarket shelves.”

According to Mr Cashman, farmers are increasingly looking for practical ways to protect profitability.

“At the end of the day, farmers want healthier livestock, strong grass growth and a viable profit. Innovative clover seed varieties are helping to deliver exactly that.”

The issue becomes all the more relevant as the EU has introduced new carbon border taxes (CBAM) on imported fertilisers, a tariff that some have called to be suspended until the situation in the Middle East is resolved.

Commenting on last week’s communication to EU leaders from the President of the EU Commission President that stated that the EU Commission is “closely monitoring the impact on fertilisers” of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, ICMSA president Denis Drennan, said that the situation had already moved well past “monitoring” and that action was required at what he noted was the “rocketing” costs of fertiliser amid the falling prices farmers were receiving for their milk and beef.

 Mr Drennan said the EU Commission’s position of “delay, wait and see” in the hope of a sudden ceasefire was not tenable and a policy response was going to be required immediately.

 “Farm output prices are not increasing at anything like the rate of increase in the costs of fertilisers. There’s also the fact that the vast bulk of fertiliser purchases will be completed by  May 1 while a significant portion of 2026 output will have been sold by May 1 at low prices – again, we have our prices falling or stagnant at the same time as a critical input price is soaring.  ‘Monitoring’ is not anything like the appropriate reaction and we have suggested policy responses,” said Mr Drennan.