'The Goldilocks principle is key', says Limerick political expert

THE HOTLY-contested final seat in Limerick City could be decided on people’s “eighth, ninth and tenth” preferences.

That’s the view of Maura Adshead, Professor of Politics and Public Administration at University of Limerick (UL) who, like many others, has predicted a battle royale for fourth place.

She has forecast, in no particular order, Willie O’Dea, Kieran O’Donnell and Maurice Quinlivan taking the first three seats in Limerick City. But, after that, Prof Adshead says any number of candidates could prosper.

In the past, left-wing voters in the former Limerick East constituency coalesced behind Labour big beasts, the late Jim Kemmy and former Education Minister Jan O’Sullivan.

But Prof Adshead says due to the number of candidates on the left this time, the vote could “scatter” and let another candidate down the middle.

“There are a large cohort of people who have always voted to the left. Now they have to choose between Brian Leddin, Elisa O’Donovan, Paul Gavan, Conor Sheehan and Ruairi Fahy. Where do they put their number ones? And what happens to their number twos and threes and fours?” she asked.

“If that left vote is so dispersed across five candidates, there is a real danger they won’t have enough first preferences to stay in the race to collect the second and third preferences,” added the UL academic.

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“We could be looking at eighth, ninth and tenth preferences.”

Two candidates running in the City - Dean Quinn of Moyross and hospital campaigner Melanie Sheehan Cleary - she believes, will bring out voters who might not normally have their say at a General Election.

“Where will their second and third preferences go to? It’s possible they might bring out little bits of the electorate which would make a difference when we are talking about this spread,” added Prof Adshead.

An interesting factor, she added, is Sinn Fein, who appear to be making some late gains in the crucial final hours before polling day.

Back in 2020, the party confounded critics by winning almost a quarter of the vote.

However, there was a feeling among the party faithful that many seats were ‘left behind’ due to the fact they only ran one candidate in areas.

Prof Adshead has used the Goldilocks and the porridge principle here.

“First they didn't do enough seats, then they did too many. You wonder if they will get it just right now,” she said.

Across in the county, Prof Adshead thinks it will be a case of ‘as you were’, with Niall Collins, Patrick O'Donovan and Richard O'Donoghue all being returned.

She thinks Mr O'Donoghue, the Independent Ireland general secretary, will be the chief beneficiary of transfers from Independent and smaller party candidates.

“He will be presented as a change to the norm. The irony is even though [the smaller parties] might get a few protest votes, it's not going to change anything at all.”

As for how the next government will look, the UL academic believes it will be, once again, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail going into coalition.

“There will be a tidal wave of Independents,” she predicts. “Possibly enough of them to shore up a Fine Gael- Fianna Fail administration”.

One thing she does feel is that Fianna Fail will remain just ahead of Fine Gael.

This, she says, is because there are so many high-profile Fine Gael TDs not contesting the election.

“It's interesting with Micheal Martin - even though he is Tanaiste - because he took over foreign affairs, you'd barely notice he'd been demoted. With all the stuff on Gaza, and Trump, he has maintained this statesmanlike position. He's been out of leadership for the bike shed and the recent disappointments, so I think this might leave him in a better position,” she said.