Government holed below the waterline
LIMERICK City Council has never before had just one Fianna Fail member.
Fine Gael has never before held an absolute majority on Limerick County Council.
Less than two decades ago, either of those propositions would have been considered impossible and anyone suggesting otherwise would have been scoffed at.
But maybe the signs were already there, hidden in the arithmetic from five years ago.
As a result of the 2004 elections, Limerick City Council had six Fine Gael members to Fianna Fail's bare two. However, the same election produced no fewer than six non-party councillors, at least two of whom could be said to have had historic associations with Fine Gael.
Also in 2004, the 12 County Council seats out of 28 which were won by Fine Gael, along with three PDs and one Labour, meant that Fianna Fail has not had a majority in council for the past five years. But the big indicator from 2004 was the fact that Fine Gael took three seats to Fianna Fail's two in each of the electoral areas of Newcastle West and Rathkeale, an outcome unthinkable to an older generation. Last weekend's Fine Gael success in gaining three of the now four seats in the Rathkeale area was statistically even more unprecedented.
It would seem, therefore, that the previously heretical idea of switching party support, and of doing so on a committed and long-term basis, may be here to stay.
But last Friday's elections, local and European, were neither local nor European; they were used by the majority of those who voted to deliver a very gruff message of dissatisfaction to a Government which had presided over an economic collapse of previously unknown magnitude, a freefall from a prosperity which had been dreamed into being by bankers and developers and which we now know to have had no foundation in reality.
Limerick's swing to Fine Gael and away from Fianna Fail was more pronounced than in many parts of the country, but the trend was there to be seen from Malin to Mizen nonetheless. This has thrown up some anomalies, not least of which is the fact that most councils, city and county as well as town, are now strongly politically opposed to the ruling Government parties (Shannon has no Fianna Fail or Green Party members), yet local government and the allocation of huge subventions to councils will remain in the hands of Minister John Gormley who is the leader of a party with more TDs than it has local councillors.
More important, however, is the fact that the swing away from Fianna Fail, which was statistically detectable in Limerick five years ago, has separated the rulers from the ruled. Everyone agrees with the principle that government can only work with the consent of the governed—anything else is oppression. So far, the Constitution is respected and its provision that a parliamentary life shall be up to five years is accepted and, therefore, the administration which was put in place in 2007 can continue, subject to Dail confidence, to 2012.
But the events of last weekend have holed the Government below the waterline. Mr Cowen and his colleagues may sail on as though nothing has happened, but everyone knows that something has. Everyone also knows that we are in a time of dire economic crisis and that focused and unwavering government, designed to restore confidence at home and abroad, is a core imperative.
Maybe Mr Cowen is the man to lead the country along that difficult but necessary path, however he should seek a new mandate to do so. The pill will be bitter regardless of who administers it, but at least we should have a choice of doctor.
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Thursday 17 May 2012
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